The market is always right.
On May 22nd, the 14th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day, Bitcoin soared past $110,000, setting yet another all-time high. This means that over the past 15 years since 2010, buying Bitcoin at any point would have yielded profits—Bitcoin has never betrayed its holders.
Many of us have seen朋友圈 (social media) flooded with sighs and "what-if" stories: "If only I’d bought Bitcoin earlier," "I sold too soon," or "It was just luck." But was it really luck? Let’s explore two stories to understand what it truly means to 'miss out' on Bitcoin—and why it happens.
Story 1: The Girl Who Asked About Bitcoin on Zhihu
In 2011, a college student posted on Zhihu: "I have 6,000 RMB. Any good investment ideas?" A user named Blockchain replied:
"Buy Bitcoin. Secure your wallet file. Forget about the 6,000 RMB. Check back in five years."
That reply came from Chang Jia, founder of Bitkan and an early Bitcoin evangelist. Had the student followed the advice, her 300+ BTC would now be worth $33 million (2.3亿 RMB).
But did she buy Bitcoin?
No.
She spent the money on a trip to Hangzhou. Despite later regrets, she admitted: "The ‘me’ back then would’ve made the same choice."
Key Question:
Did she truly miss out? Or was it never her opportunity to begin with?
Story 2: The Rise and Fall of a Bitcoin Evangelist
Lao Duan (端宏斌), a financial columnist and one of China’s earliest Bitcoin adopters, discovered BTC in 2010. He called it "the geek world’s tool for underdogs to rise."
His Bitcoin Journey:
- 2011: Co-founded Babbit, China’s premier Bitcoin community (with Chang Jia and QQagent—later known as Jihan Wu, Bitmain’s co-founder).
- 2012: Launched "Lao Duan Bitcoin Fund No. 1", China’s first Bitcoin fund, with a 10,000 RMB pool. He promised full reimbursement if BTC failed.
- 2013: Sold his holdings after a 10x surge, declaring "Bitcoin’s rally is over." He later criticized BTC as a "global Ponzi", comparing it to No-Face from Spirited Away—a symbol of greed.
By 2021, Lao Duan admitted most of his remaining BTC were stuck in Mt. Gox (the hacked exchange). Once a pioneer, he faded into obscurity as new giants like CZ (Binance) and Vitalik (Ethereum) emerged.
The Psychology of Missing Out:
Lao Duan’s story reveals a cognitive trap:
- Sunk-cost fallacy: After selling, he doubled down on his anti-BTC stance to justify exiting early.
- Ego protection: Admitting he’d misjudged would’ve shattered his authority.
- Identity lock-in: His new role as a critic made reversing course socially costly.
Key Takeaways: Why People Miss Out
- Survivorship Bias: We remember success stories (e.g., BTC) but forget countless failed tips. Not every tip is a "missed opportunity."
- Depth vs. Noise: Truly missing out means deep research + investment + still failing. Casual awareness (like Zhihu girl’s) doesn’t count.
- Ego vs. Market: The market is ruthlessly objective. Admitting mistakes > stubbornness.
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FAQ: Addressing Common Bitcoin Regrets
Q: If I bought BTC in 2010, would I be rich now?
A: Statistically, yes. But most early holders sold too soon (like Lao Duan). HODLing required rare conviction.
Q: Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?
A: Bitcoin’s halving cycles (next: 2024) historically precede bull runs. Many experts project long-term growth.
Q: How do I avoid future regrets?
A: Focus on fundamentals, not hype. Allocate only what you can afford to lose.
Q: Why do experts like Lao Duan fail?
A: Expertise breeds overconfidence. Market humility beats ego.
Final Thought
Bitcoin’s journey mirrors life’s broader truths:
- Opportunity favors the prepared—but preparation demands more than luck.
- Adaptability > dogma. Lao Duan’s rigidity cost him; the market rewards flexibility.
👉 Explore Bitcoin’s potential with OKX’s trusted platform.
The market is always right. Are you?
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