Introduction
Each year, the Bitwise team gathers to make annual predictions about cryptocurrency's future—a process involving hours of debate among dozens of team members. Ahead of our 2025 predictions (coming December 10), let’s revisit how our 2024 forecasts performed.
Setting the Stage: December 2023
When we published our 2024 predictions on December 12, 2023:
- Bitcoin traded at $43,750
- Anti-crypto sentiment dominated Washington (e.g., JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s "shut it down" testimony)
- Wall Street’s current crypto embrace seemed improbable
Fast-forward to today:
- Bitcoin nears $100,000
- Pro-crypto politicians lead in D.C.
- Institutional adoption accelerates
2024 Prediction Report Card
✅ Prediction 1: Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Above $80,000
Result: Correct
Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 in November and continues climbing. Our thesis—spot ETF approvals and the halving would drive prices—proved accurate.
👉 Explore Bitcoin's 2025 price targets
✅ Prediction 2: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Become Most Successful Launch Ever
Result: Correct
With **$31 billion inflows** by December 2024, Bitcoin ETFs shattered records (e.g., QQQ’s $5B first-year inflow in 1999).
✅ Prediction 3: Coinbase Revenue Doubles, Exceeds Earnings Expectations
Result: Correct
Coinbase’s 2024 revenue hit **$4.1B by Q3**, poised to reach $6.2B annually amid crypto’s explosive Q4.
❌ Prediction 4: Stablecoins Outpace Visa in Settlement Volume
Result: Incorrect
Stablecoins settled $5.1T** in H1 2024 vs. Visa’s **$6.5T—close but no match yet.
❌ Prediction 5: JPMorgan Tokenizes a Fund
Result: Incorrect
While Wall Street embraced tokenization (BlackRock, UBS, etc.), JPMorgan hasn’t launched a fund—despite calling it "next-gen infrastructure."
✅ Prediction 8: AI Adopters Use Crypto as "Internet’s Native Currency"
Result: Correct
Marc Andreessen’s $50K BTC donation to an AI robot (which later promoted a meme coin) showcased crypto’s AI potential.
👉 Discover crypto's role in AI ecosystems
✅ Prediction 10: Ethereum Fees Drop Below $0.01
Result: Correct
Post-Dencun upgrade, Layer 2 fees plummeted 90%+, briefly hitting $0.01. Mainstream adoption barriers are crumbling.
FAQs
Q: Why did stablecoins fail to overtake Visa?
A: Visa’s entrenched network and regulatory clarity gaps slowed stablecoin adoption despite rapid growth.
Q: Will JPMorgan tokenize funds in 2025?
A: Likely—with competitors advancing, JPMorgan risks falling behind in the $16T tokenized assets market.
Q: How accurate were Bitwise’s 2024 predictions overall?
A: 6/10 correct, with 1 pending—a strong hit rate for a volatile sector.
Conclusion
While our 2024 predictions were ambitious (and sometimes off-target), trends like institutional adoption and layer-2 scalability confirm crypto’s accelerating maturity.
Stay tuned for 2025’s forecasts—we’re doubling down on accuracy.
Methodology note: Predictions assessed based on verifiable data as of December 2024.