Executive Summary
Market Sentiment Index: 75 (Previous Week: 75)
Key Takeaways
- Upcoming U.S. Rate Decision: Expect narrow consolidation or sideways movement ahead of the Federal Reserve's announcement, with potential directional shifts post-event.
- BTC Market Dynamics: Bitcoin maintains a range-bound structure, supported by BTC conference optimism and rate-cut expectations.
- Mt. Gox Impact: Ongoing BTC distributions from Mt. Gox introduce notable selling pressure.
- Tech Earnings Volatility: Apple and Microsoft earnings reports may inject uncertainty into Nasdaq-linked crypto assets.
Weekly Market Review
1. Macroeconomic Analysis
- Rate Cut Probabilities: Market prices in 25bps cuts for September, November, and December (total 75bps), with liquidity expected to gradually fuel crypto demand.
- Equities Correlation: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index reflects stronger small-cap performance, suggesting broad-market resilience conducive to crypto risk-on sentiment.
2. BTC Price Action
- Critical Levels: BTC oscillates between $66,000–$68,000, nearing a volatility squeeze. A breakout is anticipated post-key data releases (Tuesday/Wednesday).
- Liquidation Map: Significant long liquidations at $67,238 signal a pivotal support zone. A breakdown could trigger short-term bearish momentum.
3. Derivatives & On-Chain Data
- Options Market: Bullish bets cluster around $100,000 BTC calls, indicating consensus for post-rate-cut rallies.
- Stablecoin Inflows: $9.38B added this week (vs. $11.11B prior), sustaining liquidity for potential upside.
- Chain Activity: Address metrics remain stable, but narrowed price-range筹码堆积 ($64,045–$66,990) hints at imminent directional volatility.
Next Week’s Outlook
1. Trump’s BTC Conference Speech
- Potential Catalysts: Speculation surrounds Trump announcing pro-BTC policies (e.g., national reserve status). Such rhetoric could ignite a bullish wave.
- Contingency Plan: Absent material announcements, stability in stablecoin flows and筹码分布 may still favor long positions.
2. Hot Sectors & Projects
- MEME Dominance: Harris-themed tokens (e.g., KAMA +4,300% monthly) replace fading Trump/Biden narratives. 👉 Explore trending MEMEs
- AVAX & SOL Outperformance: Both ecosystems show relative strength vs. BTC/ETH, driving trader interest.
FAQ Section
Q1: How will the Fed’s rate decision impact crypto?
A: Delayed cuts may cause short-term disappointment, but sequential reductions (September onward) are poised to incrementally boost liquidity and long-term crypto valuations.
Q2: Is Mt. Gox’s BTC distribution a major risk?
A: Yes. The ~50,000 BTC release creates sell-side pressure, but market absorption remains key—watch $64,000 as a critical defense level.
Q3: Why are Harris MEMEs surging?
A: Political momentum post-Biden’s exit fuels speculative bets, though fragmented liquidity across similar tokens (e.g., KARRIS) poses volatility risks.
Data Highlights
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| USDT+USDC Circulation | $1483.18B (+$9.38B) | Glassnode |
| BTC ETF Net Inflows | $911M (7/19–7/25) | Coinglass |
| Fear & Greed Index | 68 (Greed) | Alternative |
Disclaimer: This report is educational only. WolfDAO disclaims liability for trading decisions. 👉 Stay updated with WolfDAO