On April 20, 2024, at 8:09 AM UTC, Bitcoin successfully underwent its fourth halving at block height 840,000. The mining reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. While historically viewed as a bullish catalyst, this event has sparked divergent views among institutional analysts.
Understanding Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that:
- Cuts new BTC issuance by 50% every ~210,000 blocks (~4 years)
- Maintains scarcity by slowing supply growth
- Occurs automatically per Bitcoin's protocol design
Historical Halving Events
| Halving | Date | Block Reward Change | Price at Event | Subsequent Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11/28/2012 | 50 → 25 BTC | $12.30 | $1,217 (2013) |
| 2nd | 07/09/2016 | 25 → 12.5 BTC | $648.10 | $19,800 (2017) |
| 3rd | 05/11/2020 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC | $8,560.60 | $67,775 (2021) |
| 4th | 04/20/2024 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC | ~$66,000 | Pending |
Institutional Bearish Sentiment
👉 Why experts predict post-halving volatility
JPMorgan analysts highlight three key concerns:
- Priced-in expectations: Possible "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect
- Declining VC funding: Signals weaker confidence in crypto growth
- Miner profitability: Lower rewards may reduce network security
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Effects
- Immediate price impact tends to be muted
- Historical cycles show 12-18 month lag before major rallies
- Current macroeconomic factors add complexity vs. past halvings
Expert Perspectives
Gao Chengsheng (Blockchain Committee Member):
- "Price adjustments occur gradually due to slowed supply growth"
- Emphasizes Bitcoin's strengthening global consensus
- Warns against short-term speculation
Yu Jianing (Blockchain Association Chair):
- Expects initial volatility from miner profitability shocks
- Long-term bullish due to institutional adoption
- Recommends portfolio diversification strategies
Investment Considerations
- Risk management: Allocate only what you can afford to lose
- Time horizon: Adopt a multi-year perspective
- Diversification: Balance crypto with traditional assets
FAQs
Q: How does halving affect Bitcoin's inflation rate?
A: The annual issuance rate drops from ~1.7% to ~0.85%, making BTC scarcer than gold.
Q: Should retail investors buy before/after halving?
A: There's no perfect timing. Dollar-cost averaging reduces timing risks.
Q: Could miners shutdown after halving?
A: Less efficient operations may exit, but network difficulty adjusts automatically.
Q: How does this halving differ from past events?
A: Mature derivatives markets and ETF flows add new variables absent in previous cycles.
Q: What's the most realistic price prediction?
A: Analysts estimate $100K-$150K by late 2025 based on historical performance.