Monthly Chart Maintains Bullish Streak
- Bitcoin's monthly chart continues its bullish trend, with January 2025 likely closing as a green candle—the fifth consecutive monthly gain.
- The price opened at ¥14.73 million and has fluctuated within a ¥1 million range, currently trading above ¥16 million.
- Key takeaway: The sustained upward momentum suggests strong buyer confidence.
Weekly Chart Shows Two Consecutive Green Candles
- After a bearish start, the weekly chart rebounded with two consecutive green candles.
- The price has consolidated between ¥14.5M–¥16M but now tests the range high near ¥16M.
- Technical indicators: The 14EMA trendline supports the bullish structure, with potential for a breakout next month.
- 👉 Why Bitcoin's breakout could accelerate in February
Daily Chart Signals Strength with Higher Lows
- The daily chart shows rising lows, indicating strong support near ¥17M resistance.
- A brief spike to ¥17.1M in late January faced rejection but didn’t reverse the trend.
- Analysts predict a range breakout by early February, which could trigger heightened volatility.
Exchange Reserves Keep Declining
- Data from Glassnode reveals a steady decline in exchange-held BTC since November 2024.
- This outflow reduces sell-side pressure, reinforcing price stability.
- Implication: Fewer coins on exchanges may limit downside risks in February.
Derivatives Market Underscores Buying Potential
- The futures premium (annualized basis) stands at 12%, far below the 28% peak seen during March 2024’s market top.
- Low leverage suggests room for long positions to accumulate before overheating occurs.
- 👉 How to interpret Bitcoin derivatives data
Key Takeaways for February
- Multi-timeframe bullishness: Monthly, weekly, and daily charts align in favor of buyers.
- Range breakout likelihood: A move above ¥16M could target all-time highs.
- Reduced sell pressure: Falling exchange reserves support a firmer market floor.
- Derivatives lagging: Futures markets haven’t yet priced in excessive optimism.
FAQ Section
Q: What’s the critical resistance level for Bitcoin?
A: ¥17M remains the key hurdle; a close above it may confirm a new uptrend.
Q: How does declining exchange supply affect prices?
A: It signals long-term holding, reducing immediate selling pressure and supporting higher valuations.
Q: Is the derivatives market overheated?
A: No—the current 12% futures premium suggests room for further long positioning.
Q: Could February see volatility spikes?
A: Yes, especially if the ¥16M–¥17M range breaks decisively.
Note: All prices referenced in JPY. Analysis based on bitbank.cc and Glassnode data.