During the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, prominent crypto analyst Shenyu shared insights on how Bitcoin's halving pattern will impact the market. His analysis suggests significant differences between current market conditions and previous cycles.
Why the Altcoin Season May Not Materialize
Bitcoin currently emits $60-70 million daily. Post-halving, block rewards will decrease by 50%. When questioned about potential altcoin market performance, Shenyu offered a surprising perspective:
"There's high probability we won't see a 'copycat season' this cycle."
Key reasons for this prediction:
- Changed Market Players: The current investor base differs substantially from previous cycles
- Miners' Preparedness: Many mining operations pre-hedged risks after January's ETF approval
- Geographic Shifts: Mining operations relocated to low-cost regions like South America and Africa
- ETF Effect: Most institutional money flows directly into Bitcoin via ETFs
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Current Market Phase Analysis
Shenyu characterizes the current market as "mid-bull cycle" with these characteristics:
- Market recovery evident
- New narratives emerging
- Leverage/FOMO not yet extreme
He cautions against relying on single indicators for market predictions, recommending instead:
- Continuous market observation
- Strategic asset rebalancing
- Maintaining stability during volatility
Bitcoin Ecosystem Expansion: Necessity and Challenges
The Bitcoin ecosystem has evolved far beyond simple store-of-value propositions. Shenyu breaks down the current landscape:
Two-Tiered Bitcoin System
Base Layer:
- Primary value store function
- Minimal updates for stability/decentralization
Innovation Layer:
- Bottom-up experimentation
- Layer 2 and sidechain solutions
- Emerging use cases like inscriptions
"With substantial assets settled on Bitcoin, there's growing demand for yield-generation similar to Ethereum," Shenyu observes.
Ecosystem Challenges and Optimism
While early-stage, Shenyu notes positive trends:
- Core development shows cautious openness
- Decentralized nature prevents unilateral changes
- Market demands drive organic innovation
Custody Business Evolution and DeFi Integration
As traditional finance enters crypto, Shenyu views this as positive development:
Key Benefits:
- Solves novice user storage concerns
- Bridges traditional/crypto finance
- Validates institutional adoption
Technological advancements changing custody landscape:
- MPC keyless wallets
- Smart Contract Wallets
- Passkey-based AA wallets
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Modular Blockchain: The Future Framework
Shenyu identifies modular blockchain as 2024's most promising trend:
- Solves scaling issues plaguing both BTC/ETH
- Demonstrates practical applications
- Potential $100B+ market opportunity
"After years of experimentation, modular approaches offer the optimal balance," he notes.
Investment Psychology: Avoiding FOMO
Shenyu shares his evolved investment mindset:
- Increased reflection during bear markets
- Thought experiments before acting
- Focusing on core value capture
- Maintaining macro perspective
"When you habitually think long-term, short-term FOMO loses power," he advises.
Generational Investment Differences
Shenyu observes distinct approaches between:
Established Investors:
- Focus on cyclical opportunities
- Less reactive to sentiment
- More capital preservation
New Generation (Post-2000s):
- Native digital intuition
- Stronger sentiment awareness
- More adaptable strategies
"The new generation's internet-native perspective gives them unique advantages in spotting emerging trends," Shenyu acknowledges.
FAQ Section
Q: Why might there be no altcoin season this cycle?
A: Different market structure, prepared miners, and ETF-driven Bitcoin focus reduce altcoin momentum potential.
Q: What's the most promising technical development for 2024?
A: Modular blockchain solutions that address scaling while maintaining security and decentralization.
Q: How should investors approach the current market?
A: With balanced perspective—recognizing opportunities while maintaining risk management discipline.
Q: What makes the new generation of investors different?
A: Their innate digital intuition and adaptability to rapidly changing market conditions.
Q: Is Bitcoin ecosystem expansion necessary?
A: Yes—organic demand for functionality beyond simple storage drives natural ecosystem growth.
Q: How can investors avoid FOMO?
A: By developing long-term frameworks and resisting impulsive reactions to short-term movements.