What Are HODL Waves?
HODL Waves represent distinct bands that categorize Bitcoin supply based on inactivity periods. These bands track the percentage of total supply that hasn't been transacted within specific timeframes:
- Short-Term Bands:
✅ 1-7 Days: Coins held 1–7 days
✅ 7-30 Days: Coins held 7–30 days - Long-Term Bands:
✅ 6–12 Months: Coins dormant 6–12 months
✅ >10 Years: Coins unmoved for over a decade
Key Terminology
- LTH (Long-Term Holders): Coins inactive >6 months
- STH (Short-Term Holders): Coins active <6 months
Why HODL Waves Matter
HODL Waves reveal critical market insights:
- Investor Sentiment: Rising long-term bands indicate growing confidence.
- Supply Liquidity: Shrinking short-term bands suggest reduced selling pressure.
- Historical Trends: The >10yr band shows "lost" coins or ultra-committed holders.
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Interpreting Age Bands
| Band | Market Implication |
|---|---|
| 1–7 Days | Recent trading activity |
| 1Y–2Y | Post-halving accumulation |
| >10 Years | Early adopter holdings |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How do HODL Waves differ from regular on-chain metrics?
A: While most metrics track transaction volume, HODL Waves analyze time-based supply patterns—showing how long coins remain dormant.
Q: What causes spikes in the 1–7 day band?
A: Typically reflects short-term trading during volatile periods or exchange movements.
Q: Why monitor the >10yr band?
A: These coins represent Bitcoin's earliest adopters; sudden movement could signal historic wallets being activated.
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Conclusion
HODL Waves provide unparalleled visibility into Bitcoin's holding behavior, offering investors:
- Clear differentiation between speculative vs. committed holders
- Predictive insights about potential supply shocks
- Macro-level understanding of market cycles
Pro Tip: Combine HODL Wave analysis with exchange netflows for comprehensive market assessment.