Bitcoin’s current market cycle suggests a potential peak in approximately 200 days, aligning with forecasts of a possible US recession by mid-2025. According to research from Copper.co, this correlation emerges as Bitcoin reaches day 554 of its cycle.
Historical Patterns and Market Cycles
Historically, Bitcoin’s market cycles average 756 days from the point when the annual average growth of its market capitalization turns positive until it hits a price peak. Copper.co notes that the current cycle began around mid-2023, coinciding with BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin ETF. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could peak around mid-2025—roughly 200 days from now.
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Macroeconomic Intersections
- Recession Forecasts: JPMorgan estimates a 45% chance of a US recession in late 2025, overlapping with Bitcoin’s projected peak. This adds complexity to market strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Volatility Metrics:
- Realized volatility: 50% (standard deviation of returns).
- Implied volatility: Recently hit yearly highs, signaling expected turbulence.
Technical Indicators
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 60, well below past bull market highs. Extending the RSI’s look-back period to four years suggests significant growth potential.
- Inactive Supply: Rising amid record prices, indicating long-term holder confidence. Monitoring movement is critical for detecting shifts in market sentiment.
Key Takeaways
- Cycle Timing: Mid-2025 could mark Bitcoin’s cycle peak.
- Macro Risks: Recession forecasts may influence investor behavior.
- Technical Momentum: RSI and volatility metrics hint at further upside.
FAQs
Q: How long could Bitcoin’s bull run last?
A: Approximately 200 days, per historical cycle averages.
Q: What’s the significance of Bitcoin’s RSI at 60?
A: It suggests room for upward momentum compared to past bull markets.
Q: How does a potential US recession impact Bitcoin?
A: Macroeconomic downturns may alter investor strategies, though Bitcoin’s decoupling potential remains debated.
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