Key Takeaways
- The ETH/BTC ratio has declined for 1,190 days, marking the longest downtrend in Ethereum's history.
- Ethereum failed to surpass its 2021 all-time high this cycle, peaking at **$4,107** (18% below $4,868).
- Technical indicators (RSI < 30, negative MACD) suggest continued bearish momentum.
- Analysts debate whether ETH/BTC will bottom at ₿0.017 (2025 low) or drop further to ₿0.009.
ETH/BTC Technical Analysis
Weekly Chart Breakdown
- Critical Support Lost: ETH/BTC broke below the ₿0.027 horizontal zone (held since 2017).
- Next Support: ₿0.017 (current cycle low) or potential ₿0.009 (Elliott Wave projection).
Indicators:
- RSI indicates oversold conditions but remains below 30.
- MACD shows no bullish divergence, reinforcing downtrend.
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Historical Context
- Current 1,190-day decline surpasses the 2017–2019 downtrend (805 days).
- Similarities to 2017 fractal noted by analysts, though a reversal remains unconfirmed.
Market Sentiment
Bullish Arguments
- Whale Accumulation: On-chain data suggests large investors are buying ETH.
- Political Catalysts: Donald Trump’s ETH holdings spark speculation.
- Technical Bounce: Retest of descending resistance trend line could trigger recovery.
Bearish Reality
- No Altcoin Season: Bitcoin dominance continues to overshadow ETH performance.
- Wave Analysis: ETH/BTC likely in wave 3 of 5 (sharpest decline phase).
FAQ
Q: Will Ethereum ever recover against Bitcoin?
A: Recovery depends on reclaiming ₿0.027. Until then, the trend favors Bitcoin.
Q: What’s the worst-case scenario for ETH/BTC?
A: Elliott Wave theory suggests a drop to ₿0.009, but this would require extreme bearish momentum.
Q: Are there signs of whale activity supporting ETH?
A: Yes, some analysts report accumulation by large wallets, but price action hasn’t reflected this yet.
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Conclusion
Ethereum’s underperformance against Bitcoin reflects weakening sentiment and technical breakdowns. While a reversal is possible, the path of least resistance remains downward. Traders should monitor ₿0.017 and ₿0.009 as potential bottoming zones.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk; conduct independent research before trading.
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