Bitcoin prices have recently rebounded above $105,000 after experiencing a sharp decline triggered by macroeconomic pressures. Notably, heightened volatility in the crypto market coincided with a public spat between US political figures, further intensifying market movements. Amid this turbulence, Glassnode, a leading analytics firm, has released a critical on-chain analysis pinpointing key price levels that could dictate Bitcoin’s next major move.
Bitcoin’s Breakout Potential: Traders Watch $114K and $83K Levels
Glassnode’s analysis leverages the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis Model, derived from the Work of Cost (WOC) price framework. This model tracks the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by short-term investors (those who acquired their coins within the last 155 days). The STH cost basis serves as a vital indicator of market sentiment, often acting as support or resistance during price fluctuations.
Key Findings:
- Current STH Cost Basis: $97,100
- +1 Standard Deviation (Resistance): $114,800
- -1 Standard Deviation (Support): $83,200
Implications:
- Breakout Scenario: A sustained move above $97,100 could propel Bitcoin toward $114,800, potentially igniting a bullish rally into uncharted territory.
- Bearish Scenario: A drop below $97,100 may lead to a retest of $83,200, signaling market weakness and triggering cascading liquidations.
👉 Why the $97,000 level is crucial for Bitcoin’s next move
Bitcoin Price Overview
As of the latest data:
- Price: $105,745 (+1.07% in 24h)
- Trading Volume: $38.66 billion (-34.27%)
Market Outlook:
- Bullish Case: Continued consolidation above $97,100 supports upward momentum.
- Bearish Risk: Losing this level could expose Bitcoin to deeper corrections.
FAQs
1. What is the STH Cost Basis?
The STH cost basis reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by short-term investors, serving as a sentiment gauge and potential price floor/ceiling.
2. Why is $114,800 significant?
It represents the next major resistance level (+1STD) where selling pressure historically intensifies.
3. What happens if Bitcoin falls below $97,100?
A breach could lead to a decline toward $83,200, a critical support zone with bearish implications.
4. How does macroeconomic news impact Bitcoin?
Events like political conflicts or fiscal policies often increase volatility, affecting short-term holder behavior.
5. Is Bitcoin’s current trading volume a concern?
Lower volume suggests reduced market participation, which may delay breakout attempts.
👉 Expert insights on navigating crypto volatility
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture, with the $97,100 STH cost basis acting as the linchpin for its next major move. Traders should monitor this level closely alongside macroeconomic developments to gauge potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.