Introduction
Bitcoin's 2025 journey has defied expectations with a sharp correction from its $100K peak to $75K, prompting investors to question: Where are we in the Bitcoin halving cycle? This analysis deciphers key on-chain metrics and macroeconomic signals to assess whether the bull run remains intact or faces deeper retracement.
Key On-Chain Indicators
1. MVRV-Z Score: Local Bottom or Market Top?
- The MVRV-Z Score (Market Value to Realized Value) plummeted from 3.36 to 1.43, aligning with Bitcoin’s 30% price drop.
- Historically, such levels signal accumulation phases—similar to 2017 and 2021 cycles—where prices rebounded post-correction.
👉 Discover how MVRV-Z predicts market turns
2. Smart Money Signals: VDD Multiple
- The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple tracks coin dormancy. Current "green zone" levels resemble late bear/early bull phases, suggesting long-term holders are accumulating.
3. Capital Flow Cycle
- New investors (Red Bands): FOMO-driven buying peaked at $106K, followed by cooling activity.
- 1-2-year holders: Resumed accumulation, mirroring 2020-2021 cycle patterns.
Bitcoin’s Current Cycle Phase
Three Macro Stages
- Bear Market: 70-90% drawdown (14 months avg.).
- Recovery: Reclaiming previous ATH (~23 months).
- Bull Growth: Parabolic rally post-breakthrough.
📌 2025 Projection: If trends follow historical timelines, the cycle peak could arrive by September 2025.
Macroeconomic Risks
- Bitcoin-Stock Correlation: BTC remains tied to S&P 500 performance. Potential global recession fears may delay recovery.
FAQs
Q1: Is Bitcoin’s bull market over?
A: On-chain data (MVRV-Z, VDD) suggests a healthy correction, not a market top.
Q2: When could Bitcoin peak this cycle?
A: Based on past cycles, Q3–Q4 2025 is plausible if macro conditions stabilize.
Q3: Why did Bitcoin drop 30%?
A: Profit-taking by short-term holders and macroeconomic uncertainty triggered the pullback.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics reveal cyclical resilience, with long-term holders accumulating. However, macro risks demand vigilance. The slow-but-steady 2025 cycle mirrors historical structures, positioning BTC for potential upside—barring traditional market downturns.
👉 Learn more about Bitcoin cycle strategies
### **Keywords**:
Bitcoin cycle, MVRV-Z Score, VDD Multiple, Bull market correction, Bitcoin accumulation, Macro risks, 2025 Bitcoin forecast, On-chain indicators
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